Germany is on the brink of a pivotal moment as it prepares for federal elections on February 23, 2024. These elections are set to shape the direction of Europe’s largest economy amid significant challenges, including the ongoing war in Ukraine, soaring energy prices, and the rise of far-right movements. Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his government are facing an uphill battle to retain power, as the ruling three-party coalition—composed of the Social Democrats (SPD), the Greens, and the Free Democrats (FDP)—collapsed last year amid political turmoil, coinciding with Donald Trump’s confirmed return to the U.S. presidency. The collapse has left the political landscape fractured, with smaller parties gaining traction and the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) making significant strides in the polls. With these elections, Germany is not only choosing its next government but also grappling with its identity, its role in Europe, and its stance on critical issues like migration, energy, and national security.
The election campaign is dominated by several key players, each representing distinct ideologies and visions for Germany’s future. At the center is Chancellor Olaf Scholz, a 66-year-old leader from the center-left SPD, who has been in office since December 2021. Scholz has navigated Germany through several crises, most notably the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but his tenure has been marked by internal coalition conflicts and declining popularity. Despite his efforts, polls suggest that Scholz is likely to be voted out of office, as his party struggles to maintain its traditional voter base. Meanwhile, Friedrich Merz, the 69-year-old leader of the opposition conservative bloc (CDU/CSU), has emerged as the frontrunner in the race. Merz, a seasoned politician who once rivaled former Chancellor Angela Merkel, has positioned himself as a break from Merkel’s centrist policies, advocating for a more right-wing agenda. His recent controversial collaboration with the AfD on migration policy has sparked debate, though he has repeatedly ruled out forming a coalition with the far-right party. Merz has also been vocal about his ability to work with Donald Trump, despite past criticism of the former U.S. president’s handling of the 2020 election. On the far-right, Alice Weidel, the charismatic leader of the AfD, has capitalized on public discontent, particularly on issues of migration and EU policy. Weidel, a gay woman with a Sri Lankan partner and a PhD in economics, has defied stereotypes to lead a party that champions traditional family values and opposes progressive social change. Her party’s rise reflects a broader shift in European politics, where populist movements are increasingly finding traction.
The elections are being fought on several key battlegrounds, with Ukraine, energy policy, and migration proving to be the most contentious issues. The war in Ukraine has reshaped Germany’s foreign and defense policies, forcing the country to confront its historical reluctance to militarize. While all mainstream parties support aiding Ukraine, there are sharp divisions on the extent of that support. Scholz’s SPD has been criticized for its cautious approach, particularly its reluctance to send long-range missiles to Kyiv, while the conservatives and the Greens have pushed for more robust military assistance. On the other side of the spectrum, the AfD has called for an end to weapons deliveries to Ukraine and a normalization of relations with Russia. These differing stances highlight deeper fissures in Germany’s political landscape, with implications for its role in NATO and the EU. Domestically, the economy has emerged as another defining issue. Soaring energy prices, exacerbated by the phasing out of nuclear power and the aftermath of the Nord Stream pipeline crisis, have left many households and businesses struggling. The debate over how to respond has further polarized the parties, with the AfD advocating for a return to coal-fired power plants and opposing renewable energy subsidies, while the SPD, Greens, and FDP emphasize the need for a greener energy transition.
Another critical issue is migration, which has long been a flashpoint in German politics. A series of violent attacks linked to foreign nationals has intensified public anxiety, with many demanding stricter controls on immigration. The conservatives and the SPD have both adopted tougher rhetoric, while the AfD has seized on the issue, calling for the closure of borders. These debates are taking place against a backdrop of rising concerns about security and social cohesion, issues that the AfD has exploited to expand its base. The far-right party has also capitalized on growing disgruntlement with mainstream politicians, framing itself as the only true alternative to the political establishment. Its campaign has drawn inspiration from other successful populist movements across Europe and beyond, blending anti-immigrant sentiment, euroscepticism, and a rejection of progressive social values.
As the election approaches, the polls paint a complex picture. Friedrich Merz’s conservative bloc (CDU/CSU) has maintained a steady lead, polling at 29% in a recent INSA survey, while the AfD has surged to 21%, marking its highest level of support yet. The SPD, under Scholz’s leadership, trails at 16%, a far cry from its heyday as Germany’s dominant political force. The Greens and the far-left Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) round out the field, with 12% and 6%, respectively. These numbers suggest that the AfD is poised to make significant gains, potentially becoming the second-largest party in the Bundestag. However, all other parties have ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD, citing its extremist views and ties to far-right movements. This stance could lead to prolonged coalition negotiations after the election, as no single party is likely to secure a majority. The possibility of a conservative-led government, potentially including the FDP or the Greens, is seen as the most plausible outcome, though the arithmetic of coalition-building could prove challenging.
Germany’s electoral system, unique in its complexity, adds another layer of intrigue to the process. Unlike the winner-takes-all system in the UK, German voters cast two votes: one for a local candidate and another for a political party. The 630 seats in the Bundestag are allocated proportionally based on the second votes, with parties requiring at least 5% of the vote to gain representation. This system ensures a diverse representation of voices in parliament but can also lead to fragmented results, complicating the formation of a stable government. The new Bundestag will then elect the chancellor by a majority vote, a process that could be contentious if no clear leader emerges. As the country heads to the polls, the stakes could not be higher. The election will not only determine the next government but also set the course for how Germany navigates its role in Europe, its response to global crises, and its approach to pressing domestic challenges. The outcome is far from certain, but one thing is clear: the 2024 German federal election is a defining moment for the country and for Europe.
