King Abdullah II of Jordan and the Challenges of U.S.-Middle East Relations
A Delicate Balance: King Abdullah II and the Biden-Trump Contrast
In July 2021, King Abdullah II of Jordan met with President Joseph R. Biden Jr. in the Oval Office, where he was welcomed as a trusted partner in maintaining security in the volatile Middle East. President Biden acknowledged the challenges of the region, saying, “You live in a tough neighborhood.” However, when King Abdullah meets with former President Donald Trump, he may find that Washington poses its own set of challenges. President Trump has proposed a controversial plan to expel Palestinians from the Gaza Strip as part of a broader strategy for the U.S. to “own” the territory. This plan has put King Abdullah in a difficult position, as he must navigate the delicate balance between maintaining his country’s vital relationship with the U.S. while also protecting the interests of his people.
Trump’s recent suggestions to slash aid to Jordan and Egypt if they refuse to accept an estimated 1.9 million Palestinians from Gaza have further complicated the situation. Both Jordan and Egypt have categorically rejected this idea, leaving King Abdullah to grapple with the consequences of either conforming to Trump’s demands or risking the loss of critical U.S. financial support.
The Stakes of Rejection: U.S. Aid and Jordan’s Survival
Jordan receives over $1.5 billion in annual foreign aid from the United States, a lifeline that is crucial for the country’s economic stability. Additionally, the U.S. provides classified funding to Jordan’s intelligence services, further deepening the two nations’ strategic partnership. However, King Abdullah faces an existential dilemma: complying with Trump’s plan could undermine his legitimacy and survival. More than half of Jordan’s 12 million citizens are of Palestinian descent, and any perception of collusion in the displacement of Palestinians could lead to widespread unrest and threaten the monarchy’s stability.
Middle East experts, such as Paul Salem of the Middle East Institute, emphasize that King Abdullah cannot afford to acquiesce to Trump’s demands. “King Abdullah cannot go along with it,” Salem said. “He cannot survive the idea that he’s colluding on the ethnic cleansing of Palestinians.” The stakes are high, and the king must carefully weigh his options to avoid jeopardizing both his rule and his country’s future.
Beyond Gaza: Jordan’s Broader Regional Concerns
King Abdullah’s meeting with Trump also comes at a time when Jordan is deeply concerned about Israel’s potential annexation of the West Bank. Far-right members of the Israeli government have openly discussed such a move, and some of Trump’s appointees have historically supported it. The West Bank shares a direct border with Jordan, and any Israeli annexation could lead to heightened tensions, violence, and instability in the region. Such a scenario could spill over into Jordan, which already hosts approximately 700,000 refugees, mostly from Syria’s civil war. The king is expected to use his meeting with Trump to strongly oppose any attempts to annex Palestinian land, as this would not only harm Palestinian interests but also jeopardize regional security.
Jordan’s strategic position in the Middle East makes it a critical player in maintaining stability. Unlike its oil-rich neighbors, Jordan relies heavily on external aid to sustain its economy. King Abdullah has historically cultivated strong ties with the U.S., positioning himself as a key partner in the region. Jordan allows American troops access to its military bases and has received millions of dollars from the CIA to support its intelligence services—a relationship that dates back to the reign of King Hussein, Abdullah’s father.
Leveraging Relationships: King Abdullah’s Strategy in Washington
King Abdullah, who has ruled Jordan since 1999, is the longest-serving leader in the Middle East. His extensive experience and strong relationships with the Pentagon, the CIA, and Congress position him as a skilled negotiator in Washington. Bruce Riedel, a former top Middle East analyst at the CIA, believes that the king will use these relationships to advise Trump against pursuing the Gaza takeover and expulsion of Palestinians, emphasizing that such a plan is “a bad idea.” Abdullah’s strategy is likely to involve highlighting the long-term consequences of Trump’s proposal, including the potential for regional instability and the alienation of key Arab allies.
However, if Trump follows through on his threat to cut aid to Jordan, King Abdullah may need to seek alternative sources of support. Wealthy Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, which have also opposed Trump’s Gaza plan, could emerge as potential donors. These countries have the financial resources to help Jordan mitigate the loss of U.S. aid, but their support would come with its own set of expectations and challenges.
The Larger Prize: Saudi Arabia, Israel, and the Palestinian Question
President Trump’s ultimate goal in the Middle East appears to be a sweeping deal that would involve Saudi Arabia officially recognizing Israel. Such an agreement would be a historic shift, but it is unlikely to materialize unless the U.S. takes concrete steps toward supporting an independent Palestinian state. The Saudi government has made it clear that any normalization of relations with Israel is contingent on progress toward Palestinian statehood. This creates a potential opening for King Abdullah to leverage his influence with Trump, reminding him that Jordan is essential to achieving this broader objective.
By advocating for a balanced approach that addresses both the Gaza crisis and the larger Israeli-Palestinian conflict, King Abdullah may be able to steer Trump away from his current course and toward a more sustainable and inclusive strategy. The king’s ability to navigate this complex diplomatic landscape will not only determine the fate of his own country but also shape the future of U.S.-Middle East relations.
Conclusion: Navigating a Turbulent Geopolitical Landscape
King Abdullah II’s upcoming meeting with President Trump represents a pivotal moment in Jordan’s relations with the United States. The king must navigate a treacherous path, balancing his country’s dependence on U.S. aid with the need to protect the rights and interests of his Palestinian population. At the same time, he must confront the broader regional implications of Trump’s policies, including the potential for Israeli annexation of the West Bank and the displacement of millions of Palestinians.
While Jordan’s reliance on U.S. support creates a vulnerable position, King Abdullah’s extensive experience and strategic relationships provide him with a degree of leverage. By emphasizing the long-term consequences of Trump’s proposals and advocating for a more comprehensive approach to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the king may be able to influence the administration’s policies and secure a more stable future for Jordan and the region. Ultimately, the success of King Abdullah’s strategy will depend on his ability to navigate the complexities of U.S.-Middle East relations while safeguarding the interests of his people.
