Preparing for a Power Outage: Estonia’s Call to Action

The Estonian Rescue Board recently published a Facebook post titled “How to prepare for a power outage?” The post featured an image of a young woman holding a power bank, surrounded by emergency supplies such as water bottles, a flashlight, and other essentials. This message is part of a broader effort by the Baltic states—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—to prepare their populations for the unlikely but possible scenario of power outages as they transition away from a Russian-controlled electricity grid.

The post emphasizes the importance of readiness, stating that while the transition is expected to go smoothly, unexpected situations—such as hostile actions from Russia, extreme weather, or technical failures—could lead to disruptions. Vootele Päi, an adviser to Estonia’s Interior Ministry, acknowledges that these risks are low but stresses the need to prepare for all possibilities. This proactive approach reflects the region’s determination to ensure stability as they sever ties with Russia’s grid.

A Decades-Long Journey to Energy Independence

The Baltic states have been working towards this moment for nearly two decades, ever since they joined the EU and NATO in 2004. Over the years, they have modernized their infrastructure and established new power lines, including undersea cables connecting them to Finland and Sweden, as well as the LitPol link to Poland. These efforts paid off when, just months after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the three countries were able to stop buying electricity from Moscow.

However, Russia still maintained control over the grid’s functionality, balancing supply and demand and maintaining the frequency—all without charge, a lingering relic of the Soviet era. Energy experts warned that this arrangement posed a significant risk, as Russia could abruptly halt its services, leaving the Baltic states vulnerable. This fear was particularly heightened during the Ukraine war, as Russia demonstrated its willingness to weaponize energy supplies.

The Countdown to Desynchronization

Six months ago, the Baltic countries formally notified Russia of their intention to “desynchronize” from the BRELL (Belarus, Russia, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania) agreement, which has governed their shared grid. The agreement will expire on February 7, 2024, and on February 8, the three countries will disconnect from the grid. During this brief period, they will operate as an “island,” relying solely on their own electricity production. The following day, they plan to synchronize their newly independent grid with the Continental Europe Synchronous Area, which covers most of the EU.

This milestone is not just practical but deeply symbolic. Outside the Energy and Technology Museum in Vilnius, Lithuania, a countdown clock has been ticking down the final 100 days to “energy independence.” Foreign policy analysts describe this as a final break from Soviet-era occupation, marking a significant psychological and geopolitical step forward.

The Cost of Independence and the Geopolitical Stakes

The project has required substantial investment, with the European Union contributing over $1.2 billion in grants. However, Baltic officials argue that allowing Moscow to maintain control over their power grid was untenable, given the potential for manipulation. “We understand fairly well that the cheap Russian energy always comes at a price that no democratic European country should be able to afford,” said Päi. To underscore their commitment, Lithuania’s grid operator Litgrid has even cut old Soviet cables connecting to Belarus, repurposing them for other uses.

Some of the dismantled cables were sent to Ukraine to help rebuild its damaged energy infrastructure, a move both practical and symbolic of the region’s shared challenges. Litgrid’s CEO, Rokas Masiulis, has made it clear that there is no scenario in which the Baltics will remain connected to the Russian grid.

The Risk of Russian Sabotage and Cyberattacks

As the disconnection approaches, Baltic leaders are increasingly concerned about the potential for Russian sabotage, whether through physical attacks, cyberattacks, or disinformation campaigns. Ukraine’s experience serves as a stark reminder of these risks; it disconnected from the Russian grid just hours before Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, and it has never reconnected.

In the Baltic region, security measures have been tightened at energy facilities, and NATO has established a new mission to protect undersea cables in the Baltic Sea. Recent incidents, such as the damage to the Estlink 2 cable on Christmas Day, have heightened tensions. While authorities are still investigating the cause, suspicions of Russian involvement are unavoidable.

Lithuania’s Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė warns that Russia’s calm rhetoric may not match its actions. “Our previous experience shows that what they say and what they do do not necessarily coincide,” she said. Estonia is also deploying extra police officers and volunteer guards to protect critical infrastructure, comparing the scale of the security operation to hosting a high-profile event.

The Geopolitical Fallout and the Future of Energy Security

For Russia, the loss of control over the Baltic grid represents a significant geopolitical defeat. Experts believe that Russia may use the disconnection to stir tensions, particularly in Kaliningrad, a Russian exclave between Lithuania and Poland that will now function as an electricity “island.” Susanne Nies, a project lead at the Helmholtz-Zentrum, warns that Russia could provoke a fake blackout in Kaliningrad and blame the Baltics, testing NATO’s resolve to defend its eastern flank.

NATO has called the Baltic countries’ decision to desynchronize a “welcome step” that strengthens their energy independence, but the alliance’s ability to respond to potential provocations remains a critical concern. As the region transitions to a new era of energy independence, the stakes could not be higher. The success of this effort will not only ensure the Baltics’ energy security but also send a powerful message about their commitment to breaking free from Russia’s influence.