9:58 am - February 12, 2025
The Ukraine War and the Role of Global Powers: Can China Broker Peace?
Trump’s Appeal to Xi Jinping: A Complex Diplomatic Play
As the war in Ukraine approaches its fourth year, former US President Donald Trump has reiterated his belief that Chinese leader Xi Jinping holds the key to ending the conflict. Trump, who has long expressed admiration for both Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin, suggested during a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos that China could play a pivotal role in brokering peace between Russia and Ukraine. He emphasized the need for collaboration, stating, “Hopefully, China can help us stop the war with, in particular, Russia-Ukraine … they have a great deal of power over that situation, and we’ll work with them.” Trump’s comments were not merely rhetorical; they followed a call with Xi days before his inauguration, signaling that the issue could resurface during the Munich Security Conference, where global leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi, are set to gather.
However, Trump’s approach to fostering cooperation with China is not without its challenges. Just days before his remarks in Davos, he imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese imports, a move that could complicate efforts to secure Beijing’s support. Despite this, analysts suggest that the war in Ukraine could serve as a rare area of collaboration between Washington and Beijing, particularly as China seeks to mitigate further trade tensions with the US.
China’s Tenuous Balancing Act: Support for Russia and Outreach to the West
China has long positioned itself as a potential peace broker in the Ukraine conflict, promoting a vaguely worded proposal to end the war. However, its efforts have been overshadowed by its unwavering support for Russia, a partnership that Xi has cultivated as a cornerstone of his foreign policy. The two leaders declared a “no limits” friendship weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine, rooted in their shared opposition to NATO expansion and a belief that the US-led Western order is in decline. For Xi, maintaining this alliance is crucial, as it underpins his broader strategy to counter Western pressure and reshape the global order in China’s favor.
The stakes for Xi are high. If he were to pressure Putin into accepting a peace deal, it could strain the partnership that has been central to his geopolitical ambitions. Observers note that Xi would be reluctant to risk a weakened Russia, as it would deprive Beijing of a major diplomatic and economic partner. “The real outcome that Beijing would like to avoid is a very much weakened Russia,” said Chong Ja Ian, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore. “Because then … (Beijing) would be lacking one major partner.”
The Munich Security Conference: A Platform for Diplomacy and Debate
The future of the Ukraine conflict is expected to dominate discussions at the Munich Security Conference, which begins on Friday in Germany. The event will bring together a diverse group of leaders, including US Vice President JD Vance, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. The gathering occurs against a backdrop of shifting dynamics in Washington’s approach to the war. While the Biden administration and US NATO allies have consistently supported Ukraine, providing significant military and economic aid, Trump has adopted a more skeptical stance. In a recent Fox News interview, he suggested that the US should demand access to Ukraine’s natural resources in exchange for military assistance, and even entertained the notion that Ukraine “may be Russian someday.”
Such comments have raised eyebrows, particularly as Trump’s administration prepares to engage with Ukrainian officials in the coming days. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to travel to Kyiv to discuss the country’s critical mineral deposits, while Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, will visit Ukraine following meetings in Munich. These developments underscore the transactional nature of Trump’s foreign policy, which contrasts sharply with the broader Western consensus on the importance of defending Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Trump’s Transactional Approach: A Departure from Biden’s Strategy
Trump’s approach to the Ukraine conflict reflects his broader worldview, which prioritizes deal-making and economic interests over ideological or strategic commitments. While he has expressed a desire to end the war swiftly, his administration has yet to articulate a clear vision for the terms of a potential peace agreement. This ambiguity has led to concerns among Western allies, who fear that a hasty or ill-considered deal could leave Ukraine vulnerable to further Russian aggression.
In contrast, the Biden administration and NATO allies have framed their support for Ukraine as a defense of the rules-based international order. They argue that allowing Russia to annex Ukrainian territory or dictate terms to Kyiv would undermine global stability and embolden other authoritarian regimes. However, Trump’s scepticism of NATO and his affinity for both Putin and Xi have raised questions about whether his administration would prioritize Western unity or pursue a more isolationist approach.
China’s Options: A Delicate Balance Between Russia and the West
China’s willingness to cooperate with the US on Ukraine will depend on the specific terms of any potential peace deal. While Beijing may be tempted to engage with Washington to improve US-China relations, it will likely proceed with caution. Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center, noted that China would need to weigh the benefits of cooperation against the risks of alienating Russia. “Given the stakes on US-China relations, if Trump prices China’s cooperation as the one critical issue that could improve US-China relations, I think China will be very tempted … (and could) play a helpful role,” she said. “At the same time, she added, Beijing will be wary of undermining its alignment with Russia.”
China’s calculus is further complicated by its own geopolitical ambitions. Xi sees Putin as a potential source of support for his long-term goal of reunifying Taiwan with the mainland, and he may also view the Ukraine conflict as a useful distraction for the US, diverting attention away from the Asia-Pacific region. As such, Beijing is unlikely to abandon its partnership with Moscow, even if it means maintaining a cordial relationship with Washington. Observers note that China’s involvement in Ukraine is less about altruism and more about advancing its own interests, whether through promoting a multipolar world order or ensuring the stability of its strategic alliances.
The Risks and Implications of a Fragile Peace
While Trump’s outreach to Xi offers a potential pathway to peace, it also carries significant risks. Any deal brokered with China’s involvement would need to navigate the complex web of interests and alliances at play. For instance, a peace agreement that leaves Russia in control of occupied Ukrainian territory could set a dangerous precedent, signaling that aggression can be rewarded. It could also alienate European allies, who have been steadfast in their support for Ukraine, and undermine the unity of the NATO alliance.
Moreover, China’s role in any peace process would need to be carefully calibrated. While Beijing has positioned itself as a neutral actor in the conflict, its support for Russia throughout the war—including the provision of dual-use goods that have bolstered Putin’s military efforts—has drawn criticism from the West. For China to serve as an effective mediator, it would need to demonstrate a willingness to apply real pressure on Moscow, a step it has so far been reluctant to take.
In the end, the outcome of the Ukraine conflict will depend on a delicate interplay of factors, including the willingness of global powers to compromise, the resilience of Ukraine’s defenders, and the shifting dynamics of international relations. As the war drags on, one thing is clear: the stakes are high, and the path to peace will require careful navigation of the complex geopolitical landscape.