Ecuador’s Pivotal Presidential Election: A Nation at a Crossroads

Introduction: A Nation in Crisis and the Road Ahead

Ecuador is bracing itself for a critical presidential election, the second in just 18 months, as the country grapples with an unprecedented security crisis. Voters are set to decide whether to continue with President Daniel Noboa, who took office in 2023 to complete the term of his predecessor, Guillermo Lasso, or seek a new direction under his challenger, Luisa González. Noboa, a 37-year-old businessman and son of a banana tycoon, emerged as a dark horse in the 2023 election, defeating González in a runoff. His tenure has been marked by a hardline approach to crime, but the nation is also struggling with economic turmoil and energy shortages. As Ecuadorians head to the polls, the stakes are high, with the country’s future hanging in the balance.

The Noboa Presidency: A Leader Battling Crises

President Daniel Noboa’s time in office has been defined by a series of crises. Known for his tough stance on crime, he has declared multiple states of emergency, deployed military units to combat gang activity, and initiated the construction of a new maximum-security prison following the escape of a high-profile criminal. Noboa has framed his approach as a “war on terrorists,” referring to the highly organized gangs that have terrorized the country and taken control of its prisons.

In a bold move that shocked the region, Noboa ordered the arrest of Jorge Glas, a former vice president, from the Mexican embassy in Quito, breaking diplomatic norms. Glas, twice convicted for corruption, had been seeking asylum in Mexico at the time of the raid. Noboa has also maintained close ties with the United States, ratifying military cooperation agreements and advocating for the re-establishment of a U.S. military base in Ecuador to combat drug trafficking. Additionally, he imposed tariffs on Mexican goods, mirroring a policy enacted by former U.S. President Donald Trump, whom he attended the inauguration of earlier this year.

Domestically, Noboa has pushed for increased investment in public infrastructure and proposed raising the Value-Added Tax to address Ecuador’s “uncontrollable deficit.” However, his tenure has also been marked by widespread blackouts and economic instability, leaving many Ecuadorians uncertain about the country’s future under his leadership.

The Challenge from Luisa González: A Leftist Vision for Ecuador

Noboa’s main rival in the upcoming election is Luisa González, a leftist politician and close ally of former President Rafael Correa, who remains a significant influence in Ecuadorian politics despite his exile in Belgium. Correa, who was sentenced to eight years in prison for bribery in 2020, backed González’s 2023 campaign from abroad. González ran on a platform of “Revive Ecuador,” promising to tackle the drug trade with the same vigor as Noboa while introducing reforms to the country’s prison system and law enforcement strategies.

González has proposed eliminating SNAI, the agency responsible for managing Ecuador’s prisons, and investing in facial recognition technology to combat crime. She has also called for the reinstatement of the Ministry of Justice, which was dissolved in 2018 to cut public spending. While her campaign has leaned heavily on nostalgia for the Correa era, González has emphasized her independence, stating, “I’m the one leading my campaign – it’s my government plan.”

Ecuador’s Security Crisis: A Nation Under Siege

Ecuador is facing a protracted security crisis, with crime and violence escalating rapidly. According to a United Nations report, the country has become a major hub for cocaine trafficking, with its ports serving as a key exit point for drugs bound for North America and Europe. This shift has led to a surge in gang activity, with criminal organizations engaging in corruption, extortion, and violence.

The homicide rate in Ecuador more than tripled between 2021 and 2023, according to Human Rights Watch, although the government reports a 16.5% drop in murders in 2024. The crisis has also targeted politicians, with anti-corruption activist and presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio assassinated just days before the first round of voting in the last election. Five individuals were later imprisoned for his murder, with two alleged members of the notorious Los Lobos gang implicated.

Energy and Economic Crises: Compounding Challenges

In addition to the security crisis, Ecuador is grappling with an energy shortage caused by a prolonged drought linked to the El Niño weather phenomenon. The drought has crippled the country’s hydroelectric plants, which supply nearly 80% of its electricity, leading to widespread blackouts. To conserve power, the government implemented power cuts lasting up to 14 hours, though these measures were lifted in December.

The economic situation is equally dire. A World Bank study revealed that over half of Ecuador’s workforce is employed in the informal sector, depriving the government of much-needed tax revenue. Writing for the Atlantic Council, Latin America expert Isabel Chiriboga described the economy as “teetering on the brink of collapse,” leaving the next president with the daunting task of stabilizing the nation’s finances.

Both Noboa and González have pledged to address the energy crisis, though their approaches differ. Noboa’s administration has deregulated private use of wind and solar energy, while González advocates for increased private sector investment in renewable energy sources and direct government management of hydroelectric plants.

The Election and Beyond: A High-Stakes Vote

Sunday’s election will see Noboa and González competing alongside 14 other candidates. If no candidate secures more than 50% of the vote or the margin between the top two candidates is less than 10%, the election will proceed to a second round in April.

The vote comes at a critical juncture for Ecuador, with the country facing interconnected crises in security, energy, and the economy. While Noboa’s hardline policies have resonated with some voters, others are turning to González’s promise of reform and a return to the stability associated with the Correa era.

Regardless of the outcome, the next president will inherit a nation in turmoil. With Ecuador’s security, economy, and energy infrastructure all under strain, the road to recovery will be long and challenging. As voters cast their ballots, they are not just choosing a leader – they are shaping the future of a nation at a crossroads.