9:49 pm - February 26, 2025
U.S. Intelligence Warns of Potential Israeli Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Facilities
Recent assessments from U.S. intelligence agencies have cautioned both the Biden and Trump administrations that Israel is likely to launch strikes against key facilities in Iran’s nuclear program this year. These strikes could significantly escalate tensions in the Middle East, potentially leading to a wider conflict. The intelligence suggests that Israel’s willingness to use military force contradicts President Trump’s current goal of achieving a peace deal with Tehran. Trump has expressed a preference for a "verified nuclear peace agreement" over military action, stating, "I would like a deal done with Iran on non-nuclear. I would prefer that to bombing the hell out of it."
However, Israel’s intent goes beyond mere deterrence. According to U.S. intelligence reports, Israel aims not only to destroy Iran’s nuclear infrastructure but also to dismantle its ballistic missile capabilities. Furthermore, Israel’s long-term objective remains regime change in Iran. These ambitions are driven by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has consistently positioned Israel as a staunch ally of the Trump administration. Netanyahu has praised Trump’s "revolutionary and creative vision" for the region, particularly regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Israel’s Military Planning and Dependence on U.S. Assistance
Despite its aggressive posture, Israel faces significant limitations in its ability to carry out a comprehensive attack on Iran’s nuclear program without U.S. support. The country lacks the military capacity to destroy deeply buried nuclear facilities, which would require advanced bunker-busting bombs and mid-air refueling capabilities—resources that only the United States can provide. A former senior Biden administration official emphasized, "If you want to do a real, a total attack where you take out everything, only the United States can do it."
This dependence on American assistance underscores the complex dynamics at play. While Israel is "constantly" considering its options for striking Iran, U.S. intelligence highlights the challenges Trump faces in balancing his diplomatic aspirations with the pressure from Israel for military action. Trump’s first term was marked by aggressive moves against Iran, including the withdrawal from the Obama-era nuclear deal and the assassination of Iranian commander Qasem Soleimani. These actions suggest that Trump’s current diplomatic rhetoric may not endure, especially given his close alliance with Netanyahu.
Recent Strikes and the Weakened State of Iran
In recent months, Israel has already demonstrated its willingness to act unilaterally. On October 25, 2024, Israel struck Iran’s missile production facilities and air defenses, capitalizing on Tehran’s weakened state due to sanctions and the decimation of its regional proxies. However, Israel notably avoided targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, a decision that aligns with Biden’s public warnings against disproportionate retaliation. The Biden administration had urged Israel to respond proportionally to Iran’s ballistic missile attacks on October 1, 2024, which caused limited damage.
Despite this restraint, U.S. intelligence assessments last fall indicated that Israel was considering unilateral attacks on nuclear sites, hoping to pressure the Biden administration into joining the effort. Although the Biden administration explored the possibility of military action following Israel’s successful strikes on non-nuclear targets, these discussions were halted after Trump’s election victory in November. Officials agreed that any preemptive strikes would not occur during the transition period, provided Iran did not accelerate its nuclear weapons program.
Trump’s Shift Toward Diplomacy and Its Implications
Trump’s recent actions suggest a shift toward diplomacy with Iran, a departure from his earlier hawkish stance. The president has distanced himself from hardline officials like Brian Hook and appointed Steve Witkoff, a reputed "deal maker," as his Middle East envoy. Witkoff’s appointment signals Trump’s interest in pursuing a diplomatic path, contrasting with the aggressive posture of his first term. Additionally, Trump’s decision to strip former officials of their security details despite ongoing threats from Iran reflects his evolving approach to relations with Tehran.
Nevertheless, Trump has yet to clarify his vision for U.S.-Iran relations, particularly in the aftermath of heightened tensions following the Israel-Hamas war. While he has expressed a desire for apeace agreement, it remains uncertain whether he can reconcile this goal with Israel’s persistent desire for military action. Israeli officials continue to argue that Iran’s weakened state presents an opportune moment for further strikes, potentially undermining Trump’s diplomatic efforts.
The Delicate Balance of U.S.-Israel Relations and the Road Ahead
The relationship between Trump and Netanyahu will play a pivotal role in shaping the trajectory of U.S.-Israel relations and their joint approach to Iran. Netanyahu has already begun engaging with Trump’s transition team, signaling Israel’s intent to influence the new administration’s Iran policy. However, Trump’s diplomatic overtures to Tehran may clash with Israel’s ongoing desire for military action. The recent U.S. intelligence assessment suggests that any Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities would only minimally set back the program, emphasizing the limits of military action as a solution.
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the interplay between U.S. diplomacy and Israeli military ambitions will continue to shape the region’s stability. With Iran in its weakest military position in decades, the coming months will test Trump’s ability to navigate the competing interests of diplomacy and deterrence. The stakes are high, and the outcome will have far-reaching implications for the Middle East and beyond.