9:10 pm - February 12, 2025
The Dual Nature of Donald Trump’s Presidency: Strength and Illusion
When assessing Donald Trump’s presidency, there are two truths that stand out: first, the importance of projecting strength as the commander in chief, and second, the reality that nothing is ever as it seems. These principles are on full display during his second presidency, particularly in his recent tariff showdown with Canada and Mexico. Trump’s political strategy is a mix of brinkmanship, tough posturing, and calculated chaos, which often obscures the actual substance of his actions. The latest trade war drama with America’s closest neighbors is a prime example of this approach, leaving many to question the real winners and losers in the situation.
The Tariff Showdown: A Bluff or a Victory?
The 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico were set to take effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on Tuesday, but Trump paused the trade war, claiming significant concessions from both countries. He declared victory, citing progress on border security and fentanyl control, two issues central to his campaign promises. Mexico agreed to deploy 10,000 troops to its northern border, while Canada pledged to appoint a fentanyl czar, establish a joint border task force, and invest $1.3 billion in border security. Pro-Trump media outlets hailed these moves as decisive wins, framing them as evidence of Trump’s mastery of deal-making.
However, a closer examination suggests a different narrative. Despite the White House’s victory lap, Trump may have backed down from a fight that could have inflicted severe economic pain on all parties involved. The tariffs were halted for 30 days, and the concessions from Canada and Mexico were not as significant as they seemed. For instance, Canada’s $1.3 billion border security plan had already been proposed in December, and Mexico has previously deployed troops to the border at the request of President Joe Biden without needing economic coercion.
The Optics of Victory and the Reality of Compromise
From Trump’s perspective, the pause on tariffs allows him to claim a political win while avoiding the potential fallout of a trade war. The markets had already begun to react negatively, with concerns about rising grocery prices and disruptions to the auto industry, which relies heavily on cross-border trade. Additionally, the tariffs could have undermine