7:51 pm - February 20, 2025
European leaders are holding an emergency meeting in Paris on Monday, prompted by growing concerns over their exclusion from key talks between the US and Russia regarding the future of Ukraine. This exclusion has highlighted long-standing frustrations from the US about Europe’s approach to defense spending and its perceived lack of military influence. For years, the US has criticized Europe for its relatively relaxed attitude toward defense budgets, and the current situation underscores Europe’s vulnerability in shaping global security decisions. The urgency of the moment is evident in President Macron’s hurried effort to gather European leaders, signaling a deep alarm about the shifting global power dynamics and Europe’s place within them.
The invite list for Monday’s informal meeting includes key European nations such as Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, the Netherlands, and Denmark, as well as representatives from the European Council, European Commission, and NATO. The UK’s participation is notable, with Sir Keir Starmer emphasizing the gravity of the moment, describing it as a “once in a generation opportunity” for national security. Starmer has dismissed any notion of internal divisions within the alliance, stressing the importance of focusing on the external threats Europe faces. Meanwhile, Donald Trump’s special envoy for Russia and Ukraine, General Kellogg, has challenged European leaders to step up their contributions to the Ukrainian peace process, urging them to move beyond complaints about their exclusion and instead present actionable ideas and increase defense spending.
The meeting is expected to focus on several critical issues, including the potential for a future peacekeeping force in Ukraine, ways to strengthen Ukraine’s military capabilities, and the thorny question of defense spending. While the idea of forming a new European army, as requested by President Zelenskyy, seems unlikely, the discussions will likely explore more practical measures to support Ukraine and enhance Europe’s military preparedness. The financial realities, however, highlight the challenges ahead. The US, as NATO’s top military power, spent $967.71 billion on defense in 2023, compared to Germany’s $97.69 billion and the UK’s $82.11 billion. These figures reveal a stark imbalance in military resources and raise questions about Europe’s ability to take on a more significant role in global security.
President Trump has long advocated for NATO members to allocate 5% of their GDP to defense spending, a demand that has gained traction in some European capitals. The UK, for instance, has expressed agreement with this principle, with the prime minister arguing that Europe must assume greater responsibility for its own defense while still collaborating with the US. However, the UK’s current pledge to increase defense spending from 2.3% to 2.5% of GDP remains uncertain, with doubts about how and when this target will be met. Meeting the 2.5% goal alone is projected to cost £5 billion, a figure that poses significant fiscal challenges for the government. The chancellor faces tough decisions about whether to borrow funds for defense or cut spending elsewhere, amid reports of cabinet divisions on the issue.
The foreign secretary recently highlighted the UK’s historical commitment to defense, noting that during the Cold War, the nation spent 7% of its GDP on military expenses. The argument is clear: the cost of inaction, particularly if Ukraine falls to Russia, would far outweigh the financial burden of increased defense spending. Whatever conclusions European leaders reach on Monday, Sir Keir Starmer is set to play a pivotal role in bridging the gap between Europe and the US when he visits the White House next week. His mission will likely involve conveying Europe’s proposals to the US and ensuring a unified transatlantic front. Following his return, European leaders plan to reconvene, possibly with President Zelenskyy in attendance, to further solidify their strategy.
Despite these efforts, transatlantic relations are under strain, with divisions growing beyond just defense and Ukraine. Recent comments by the US vice president criticizing European countries, including the UK and Germany, over issues of free speech and religious freedom have added to the tension. These broader societal and democratic differences complicate the already challenging task of maintaining a unified Western alliance. As Europe seeks to assert its influence in the new global order, the “special relationship” between the US and the UK—and by extension, Europe—will need to withstand significant pressure. The coming days and weeks will reveal whether European leaders can rise to the challenge, presenting a coherent vision for their role in global security and fostering a stronger, more cohesive alliance.