The rise of Reform UK, a populist, hard-right party, to the top of a recent YouGov voting intention poll has sent shockwaves through the British political establishment. The February 3 poll revealed that if an election were held now, 25% of voters would support Reform UK, edging out the governing Labour Party at 24% and the Conservatives at 21%. This marks the first time Reform UK has led in a national poll, signaling a significant shift in the political landscape. The party, founded in 2021 as a rebrand of the Brexit Party, has focused on issues like immigration, housing, and combating what it calls “woke ideology.” Its rapid growth and popularity, particularly among disillusioned voters, have raised alarms about the direction of British politics.
Reform UK’s success is not entirely surprising. The party, led by Nigel Farage, secured 4.1 million votes in the July 2024 general election, a remarkable achievement for such a young party. A recent poll by the anti-far-right campaign group Hope Not Hate found that Reform UK could win up to 169 seats in Parliament out of 650, solidifying its emergence as a major political force. The group warned that Farage’s party is capitalizing on public disillusionment to push an extreme agenda, which could further divide the country. Meanwhile, some Labour MPs have reportedly set up a pressure group in areas where Reform UK performed strongly, urging the leadership to take a tougher stance on illegal migration—one of the party’s key issues.
The rise of Reform UK reflects broader concerns about the mainstreaming of far-right ideas in British politics. Professor Aurelien Mondon, a senior lecturer in politics at the University of Bath, argues that the Labour government has inadvertently paved the way for Reform UK’s rise by focusing on issues like immigration and austerity. This, he says, has emboldened supporters of far-right ideologies and allowed their ideas to become more acceptable in mainstream discourse. Mondon emphasizes that the popularity of Reform UK says less about the party itself and more about the failure of Labour to address the country’s crises effectively. He warns that even if Reform UK does not win the next election, its influence could still shape the political agenda and normalize divisive policies.
The political response to these developments has been widely criticized. Last summer, far-right riots targeted Muslim and ethnic minority communities across the UK, yet the mainstream political class largely failed to condemn these attacks or acknowledge the widespread anti-fascist counter-protests. Mondon notes that this lack of response has emboldened far-right groups, allowing them to exploit divisions and deepen tensions. The Labour government, in particular, has been accused of ignoring the concerns of marginalized communities while catering to reactionary interests. This has created a vacuum that Reform UK and other far-right movements are eager to fill.
The growing influence of right-wing populism in the UK is also reflected in the involvement of figures like tech billionaire Elon Musk, who has used his platform to spread hateful rhetoric about immigration. Mondon describes this as a symptom of a broader failure of democratic institutions to counter the rise of what he calls a “reactionary tech oligarchy.” Musk’s actions, he argues, are not an exception but a product of a weakened democratic system that has allowed wealth and power to concentrate in the hands of a few individuals with little commitment to democratic values. This trend raises serious concerns about the future of democracy and the ability of institutions to counter the spread of extremist ideologies.
Looking ahead, the rise of Reform UK raises questions about whether the party could one day lead the country. While Mondon does not rule out this possibility, he emphasizes that it would require mainstream political actors to continue failing to address the UK’s crises. If Reform UK’s popularity grows, it could embolden its supporters to become more outspoken about their views, further polarizing society. However, Mondon stresses that this outcome is not inevitable. He calls for radical reforms to tackle the root causes of discontent, such as inequality, austerity, and climate change, and urges mainstream parties to resist the normalization of far-right ideas. Only then, he argues, can the UK move toward a more inclusive and equitable political future.
