Russia’s involvement in Syria has been a pivotal factor in shaping the country’s fate over the past decade. In 2015, Moscow intervened militarily in Syria’s civil war, providing critical support to then-President Bashar al-Assad. Through devastating airstrikes on rebel-held areas, Russia helped prop up Assad’s regime, which was on the brink of collapse. This intervention not only bolstered Assad’s position but also cemented Russia’s influence in the region. However, the geopolitical landscape shifted dramatically in December when rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a group affiliated with Syria’s interim leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa, overran Damascus, leading to the fall of Assad. This sudden turn of events has raised questions about the future of Russia’s military presence in Syria, particularly its two strategic bases—Tartus naval base and Khmeimim airbase—located on Syria’s Mediterranean coast.
In the aftermath of Assad’s ousting, Russian President Vladimir Putin made a significant move by engaging in a phone call with Syria’s new interim leader, Ahmad al-Sharaa. This marked the first high-level contact between Moscow and Syria’s new leadership, signaling Russia’s eagerness to maintain its influence in the country. During the conversation, al-Sharaa emphasized the “strong strategic ties” between Syria and Russia, highlighting Damascus’s openness to cooperation with all parties to serve the interests of the Syrian people and enhance the country’s stability and security. Putin, in turn, extended an official invitation to Syria’s Foreign Minister, Asaad al-Shaibani, to visit Russia, underscoring Moscow’s commitment to maintaining diplomatic channels. The Kremlin also reaffirmed its support for Syria’s sovereignty, unity, and territorial integrity, a position that has been consistent throughout Russia’s involvement in the conflict.
Russia’s motives in engaging with the new Syrian leadership are not entirely altruistic. Moscow is keen to secure its military bases in Tartus and Khmeimim, which are not only vital for projecting power in the Mediterranean and Africa but also serve as symbols of Russia’s global ambitions. These bases, located outside the former Soviet Union, have been instrumental in supporting Assad’s regime and have allowed Russia to maintain a strategic foothold in the region. Recent reports suggest that Syria’s new authorities have demanded the return of Bashar al-Assad as a condition for allowing Russia to retain its bases. This puts Moscow in a delicate position, as it must balance its desire to maintain its military presence with the need to adapt to the new political reality in Syria.
Against this backdrop, Syria’s interim government has taken steps to shape the country’s future. A seven-member preparatory committee has been established, comprising representatives from the ruling coalition, civil society, and two women, one of whom is a Christian. This move appears to address calls for inclusivity and diversity from both the international community and the Syrian people. According to Al Jazeera’s Osama Bin Javaid, reporting from Damascus, this committee is seen as a step toward national dialogue, where over 1,000 Syrians from various walks of life are expected to participate in charting a future strategy for the country. While this is still in its early stages, analysts view it as a positive development, indicating the new government’s willingness to engage with all Syrians and demonstrate its commitment to inclusivity.
The challenges ahead for both Russia and Syria are significant. Russia must navigate a complex web of negotiations to ensure the continued operation of its military bases, which are critical to its regional and global influence. Meanwhile, Syria’s interim government faces the daunting task of rebuilding a war-torn nation, addressing the grievances of its diverse population, and fostering unity after years of conflict. The formation of the preparatory committee is a promising start, but the road to peace and stability will be long and fraught with obstacles. For Russia, the key will be to adapt its strategy to align with the new leadership while safeguarding its strategic interests. For Syria, the focus must be on creating a broad-based, inclusive political process that can heal the wounds of the past and lay the foundation for a brighter future.
In conclusion, the fall of Bashar al-Assad and the rise of a new leadership in Syria have ushered in a new era of uncertainty and opportunity. Russia, having invested heavily in propping up Assad’s regime, now finds itself in a position where it must redefine its relationship with Syria’s interim government. The fate of its military bases hangs in the balance, as does its ability to maintain influence in the region. At the same time, Syria’s new leaders are taking tentative steps toward building a more inclusive political framework, which could pave the way for national reconciliation and recovery. As the situation continues to evolve, the interplay between Russia’s geopolitical ambitions and Syria’s internal dynamics will remain a critical focal point in the region.
