10:18 pm - February 24, 2025
The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, a prominent Shia military group in Lebanon, continues to escalate despite a ceasefire agreement brokered in November. The ceasefire was intended to halt hostilities after weeks of intense fighting, which began on October 8, when Hezbollah launched strikes in solidarity with Hamas in Gaza. Israel responded with heavy bombardments across Lebanon, resulting in significant casualties and displacement. A key condition of the ceasefire was Israel’s withdrawal of its military forces from southern Lebanon by January 26. However, that deadline has come and gone, and Israel has refused to pull back, extending the deadline to February 18. Instead, Israel has continued to occupy southern Lebanon, sporadically bombing areas across the country and justifying its actions as targeting Hezbollah for alleged ceasefire violations. This ongoing military presence has left thousands of Lebanese civilians unable to return to their homes in border villages, as Israeli troops remain in place, sometimes shooting at those who approach restricted zones.
The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah intensified in September 2023, when Israel escalated its attacks on Lebanon, killing Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, on September 27. Since October 2023, Israel’s military operations have resulted in the deaths of approximately 4,000 people across Lebanon. The ceasefire, which officially took effect on November 27, was intended to bring an end to the violence, but its terms have been inconsistently upheld. While Hezbollah has largely ceased its attacks, Israel has continued to carry out airstrikes and shelling, albeit at a lower intensity than before the ceasefire. For instance, nightly bombings of Beirut’s southern suburbs have stopped, but sporadic attacks persist, including some north of the Litani River, an area where Hezbollah is supposed to have withdrawn its forces under the agreement. Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) reveals that between November 27 and January 10, Israel conducted 330 air strikes and shelling incidents, as well as 260 property destruction events.
Hezbollah’s adherence to the ceasefire has also been called into question by Israel. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz claimed in January that Hezbollah had not fully withdrawn its forces north of the Litani River, a condition of the ceasefire. Katz warned that if Hezbollah did not comply, Israel would take unilateral action to ensure the safety of northern Israel’s residents. However, Hezbollah’s Secretary General, Naim Qassem, stated in a late January speech that the group had adhered to the ceasefire, though he did not explicitly confirm whether all Hezbollah forces had withdrawn from southern Lebanon. ACLED has recorded only one attack by Hezbollah since the ceasefire began—a December 2 strike on an Israeli site in the occupied territories coded as Syria. Hezbollah’s restraint has been notable, with no direct attacks on Israeli soil since the ceasefire took effect. Despite this, the group has faced repeated Israeli attacks, which Qassem described as tests of its patience.
The international community’s response to the conflict has been limited, despite the brokered ceasefire. Lebanon filed a formal complaint with the United Nations over Israel’s ceasefire violations, while France’s President Emmanuel Macron urged Israel to meet the initial withdrawal deadline, to little effect. The ceasefire was originally brokered by France and the United States, but there has been no clear mechanism for enforcing its terms or holding violators accountable. Diplomatic sources suggest that the U.S., a key ally of Israel, assured that the agreement would be upheld, but no penalties or consequences were outlined for violations. As a result, Israel’s continued occupation and attacks have gone unchecked, leaving the situation unresolved.
The consequences of Israel’s refusal to leave southern Lebanon remain unclear. Hezbollah’s Qassem warned in January that the group’s patience might wear thin if Israel continued to violate the ceasefire. However, in a more recent speech, Qassem appeared to shift the responsibility for addressing Israel’s actions to the Lebanese state, emphasizing the need for international pressure and diplomacy. The Lebanese army is supposed to deploy to southern Lebanon as part of the ceasefire agreement, but its ability to enforce the terms remains uncertain. Hezbollah’s capacity to respond to Israeli aggression is also limited due to significant setbacks it has suffered. The fall of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad regime, which was a key route for Hezbollah’s arms supply from Iran, has weakened the group’s logistics. Additionally, Hezbollah’s military capabilities were heavily damaged during the two-month escalation of fighting from September to November, and it has lost much of its senior leadership. These factors have made Hezbollah reluctant to provoke further Israeli retaliation.
The ongoing situation raises critical questions about the nature of the ceasefire and Israel’s long-term objectives. If the ceasefire is intended to halt violence and stabilize the region, its current form falls short. Israel’s continued occupation and sporadic attacks undermine the agreement’s credibility, leaving thousands of Lebanese displaced and vulnerable. Meanwhile, the lack of accountability for ceasefire violations and the absence of a clear enforcement mechanism leave the conflict unresolved. As tensions persist, the international community must play a more proactive role in addressing the situation, ensuring that both parties adhere to the agreement and working toward a lasting resolution. The human cost of the conflict—measured in lives lost, homes destroyed, and communities displaced—underscores the urgent need for accountability and diplomacy to prevent further escalation.