The United States’ recent decision to scale back humanitarian assistance in Southeast Asia has sparked concerns about the potential consequences for the region and the broader implications for global power dynamics. Since President Donald Trump’s inauguration, Washington has frozen nearly all foreign aid and taken steps to dismantle the US Agency for International Development (USAID), a key instrument of American soft power. USAID, which disbursed $860 million in Southeast Asia last year alone, has funded a wide range of projects, from HIV treatment and biodiversity conservation to governance initiatives and disaster relief. With the Trump administration prioritizing an “America first” agenda, these programs are now facing an uncertain future, leaving a void that analysts believe China is well-positioned to fill.
For China, the withdrawal of US aid presents a strategic opportunity to expand its influence in Southeast Asia, a region where it has already invested billions of dollars in infrastructure, trade, and development projects. Yanzhong Huang, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, argues that the suspension of US health, education, and humanitarian programs—key pillars of American soft power—creates a vacuum that Beijing can exploit. “This strategic retreat could strengthen Beijing’s influence across the region, particularly in current US aid recipients like Indonesia, the Philippines, Myanmar, and Cambodia,” Huang noted. China has already begun to seize such opportunities. For instance, when the US pulled funding for a de-mining project in Cambodia, Beijing stepped in with $4.4 million to support the effort, helping to clear landmines and unexploded ordnance that have long plagued the country. The move underscores China’s growing role as a development partner in the region.
However, China’s approach to foreign aid and development differs significantly from that of the US. Unlike USAID, which has focused on ideology-driven initiatives such as democracy promotion, LGBTQ+ rights, and climate change, China has prioritized infrastructure projects, often through non-concessional loans, as part of its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Analysts like John Gong, an economics professor in Beijing, doubt that China will directly replace the US in funding politically sensitive programs. “China’s foreign assistance is quite different from what USAID does,” Gong explained. “The latter seems to be devoting a lot of resources to ideology-based initiatives, for democracy, for LGBTQ, for diversity, for inclusiveness, for climate change.” Instead, Beijing has focused on building roads, railways, and ports across Southeast Asia, projects that have made China a visible and influential player in the region.
Despite its growing influence, China’s infrastructure-driven approach has not been without challenges. Many of its projects have faced delays, budget overruns, and accusations of “debt-trap diplomacy,” where host countries become heavily indebted to China. For example, the East Coast Rail Link in Malaysia and the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed rail line in Indonesia have faced significant criticism due to cost blowouts and concerns about long-term economic sustainability. These issues have raised questions about the viability of China’s soft power strategy in the region. However, Beijing has continued to expand its development footprint through initiatives like the Lancang-Mekong Cooperation Mechanism and the Peace Ark hospital ship, which provides medical aid to countries in need. These efforts have helped China build goodwill, even as it faces skepticism from some Southeast Asian nations.
In contrast to the US, which has often framed its aid as a tool for promoting democratic values and human rights, China has taken a more pragmatic approach, emphasizing mutual economic benefit and non-interference in domestic affairs. This has resonated with some Southeast Asian leaders who prefer not to take sides in the US-China rivalry. However, not all countries are convinced. A recent survey by the Iseas-Yusof Ishak Institute found that while 59.5% of respondents across 10 Southeast Asian countries view China as the region’s most influential economic power, more than half expressed distrust of Beijing, fearing its economic or military ambitions. Japan, the US, and the European Union remain more trusted partners in the region, highlighting the limitations of China’s soft power push.
The shifting dynamics in Southeast Asia reflect broader global trends, as the US-China rivalry continues to reshape international relations. While China has the resources and ambition to fill the void left by the US, experts caution that its ability to do so is constrained by its own domestic challenges, including slowing economic growth and rising debt levels. At the same time, Southeast Asian countries are likely to pursue a diversified approach to foreign aid, seeking to balance relations with both the US and China while also engaging with other partners like Japan, Australia, and the European Union. In this context, the region’s future will be shaped not only by the choices of external powers but also by the agency of Southeast Asian nations themselves, as they navigate the complexities of a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.
