A Season of Chaos and Controversy: The 2024 Oscar Race Heats Up
The period following the Oscar nominations is often a quiet, predictable stretch in the awards season. However, this year has been anything but ordinary. The last two weeks have been some of the most tumultuous in recent memory, thanks to a firestorm of controversy surrounding old tweets from Karla Sofía Gascón, a star of the heavily nominated film “Emilia Pérez.” Gascón’s defiant response to the backlash kept her scandal in the headlines during critical voting periods, which has now left “Emilia Pérez” hobbling in the race. As the dust settles, five key narratives are emerging that will shape the rest of the season.
“Anora” Rises to the Top: A Comeback Story for the Ages
At the start of 2024, Sean Baker’s “Anora” seemed to have stalled in its awards-season trajectory. After going winless at the Golden Globes and facing delays at the Critics Choice Awards due to the Los Angeles wildfires, the film’s momentum appeared to be waning. However, a stunning reversal of fortunes over one weekend in February catapulted “Anora” back into the spotlight. Winning top honors at the Critics Choice Awards, followed by best-picture prizes at both the Directors Guild of America (DGA) and Producers Guild of America (PGA) awards, has solidified “Anora” as the clear front-runner for Best Picture.
This isn’t just a technical victory; “Anora” has built a broad coalition of support across different voting demographics, making it the most consistent favorite among voters and industry insiders. While history reminds us that winning both the PGA and DGA doesn’t guarantee an Oscar (as seen with “1917” losing to “Parasite” in 2020), the film’s widespread appeal and recent wins have put it in a strong position to take home the top prize.
“Emilia Pérez” Searches for a Lifeline: Can It Recover from the Controversy?
Despite its 13 Oscar nominations, “Emilia Pérez” is now fighting an uphill battle after the scandal involving Karla Sofía Gascón. While the film picked up three wins at the Critics Choice Awards, including a supporting-actress prize for Zoe Saldaña, those victories came before Gascón’s tweets surfaced. At the PGA and DGA awards, where voting coincided with the fallout, “Emilia Pérez” was shut out entirely.
The film’s best hope for redemption lies with the upcoming BAFTA awards, which share significant overlap with the Academy’s voting body. A strong showing at BAFTA could signal that international voters remain enamored with the film and are either unaware of or unfazed by the controversy. Additionally, while Zoe Saldaña’s chances in the supporting-actress category may not be directly affected by the scandal, the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) awards will test whether Gascón’s actions have soured voters on the film as a whole.
“Conclave” and “Wicked”: Charting an Unconventional Path to Best Picture
Two films, “Conclave” and “Wicked,” are defying conventional wisdom in their quest for Best Picture. Typically, a Best Picture nominee needs a corresponding Best Director nomination to have a serious shot at winning. However, both films are attempting to buck this trend.
“Conclave,” a pulpy but elevated thriller, is relying on the Oscars’ preferential ballot system. By positioning itself as everyone’s second-choice film, it hopes to compile enough points to overtake more polarizing competitors. This strategy could work in a season as divisive as this one, where likability might prove to be a deciding factor.
“Wicked,” on the other hand, faces an even steeper climb. As the first film since 1932’s “Grand Hotel” to compete for Best Picture without a director or screenplay nomination, it is relying on its spectacle and box-office success to win over voters. While some industry insiders argue that its success is good for both Hollywood and the Oscars, it will need to marshal significant enthusiasm to overcome its lack of key nominations.
“The Brutalist” Fails to Deliver: A Setback for Brady Corbet
Going into the DGA awards, “The Brutalist” and its director, Brady Corbet, were considered strong contenders. The film’s epic scale, achieved on a shoestring budget of under $10 million, had already earned Corbet a Golden Globe for Best Director. Many pundits predicted that Corbet would take home the DGA prize as well, making him a likely contender for the Best Director Oscar.
However, Sean Baker’s surprise win for “Anora” at the DGA awards threw a wrench into those plans. While Corbet’s passion project has its devoted fans, its polarizing nature—particularly among women voters—has hindered its momentum. Like “Emilia Pérez,” “The Brutalist” will now have to rely on a strong showing at the BAFTA awards to regain its footing in the race.
“I’m Still Here” Waits in the Wings: A Dark Horse in the International Film Category
With “Emilia Pérez” tarnished by scandal, the International Film category has suddenly become competitive. Just weeks ago, “Emilia Pérez” seemed like a lock for the prize, given its strong Best Picture credentials. But now, “I’m Still Here,” a Brazilian drama directed by Walter Salles, has emerged as a viable alternative.
The film tells the story of an activist fighting against Brazil’s military dictatorship, with Fernanda Torres delivering a powerful performance in the lead role. While “I’m Still Here” still faces an uphill battle in the Best Picture and Best Actress categories, its tasteful execution and lack of controversy make it an attractive choice for voters looking for a more straightforward option. As the Brazilian community rallies behind the film, it could pull off a surprise win in the International Film category.
The Race to the Finish: What’s Next in This Unpredictable Season?
As the Oscar race enters its final stretch, the key narratives are clear: “Anora” is the front-runner, “Emilia Pérez” is scrambling to recover, “Conclave” and “Wicked” are taking unconventional routes, “The Brutalist” is trying to regain momentum, and “I’m Still Here” is poised to capitalize on the chaos in the International Film category. With the BAFTA and SAG awards still on the horizon, there’s plenty of opportunity for the race to shift further.
One thing is certain: this Oscars season has been anything but boring. Whether it’s the fallout from Gascón’s tweets, the underdog rise of “Anora,” or the long-shot bids of “Wicked” and “I’m Still Here,” there’s no shortage of drama to keep us engaged. As voters cast their final ballots, one question looms: will this season’s unpredictability result in a surprise winner, or will the front-runners hold their ground? Only time will tell.
