China’s Power Industry: A Contradictory Path to Sustainability

Introduction to China’s Energy Dilemma

China’s power industry is at a crossroads, with a recent surge in coal plant construction raising significant concerns about its ability to meet ambitious climate goals. In 2024, the country began building nearly 100 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-fired power plant capacity, marking the highest level of coal plant construction in almost a decade. This development, highlighted in a report by two clean-energy groups, suggests that while China continues to expand its renewable energy resources at an unprecedented pace, it is also deepening its reliance on fossil fuels. This contradictory approach risks undermining its progress in solar and wind energy, which has far outpaced that of the United States and Europe.

The Implications for China’s Climate Goals

The report, jointly produced by the Europe-based Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air and the US-based Global Energy Monitor, warns that China’s increasing investment in coal power threatens to derail its climate commitments. In 2020, Chinese President Xi Jinping announced two landmark climate goals: achieving a peak in carbon emissions by 2030 and reaching carbon neutrality by 2060. While analysts suggest that China’s carbon emissions may have already peaked, the next critical step is to reduce them significantly. However, the continued expansion of coal-fired power plants casts doubt on whether the country can achieve these targets.

China’s reliance on coal is not just a domestic issue; it has global implications. As the world’s largest emitter of carbon dioxide, China’s energy choices play a pivotal role in determining the success of international efforts to combat climate change. The report emphasizes that instead of replacing coal with clean energy, China is essentially adding renewable energy on top of its existing fossil fuel infrastructure. This approach risks locking the country into a high-carbon trajectory for decades to come.

The Rise of Coal Plant Construction in China

The surge in coal plant construction in 2024 was not entirely unexpected. It followed a sharp increase in government approvals for coal-fired plants in 2022 and 2023. According to a worldwide database maintained by Global Energy Monitor, construction began on 94.5 GW of coal power plant capacity in 2024, surpassing any year since 2015. Additionally, work resumed on 3.3 GW of previously suspended coal projects. This rapid expansion suggests that coal will continue to dominate China’s power system for the foreseeable future.

The report highlights that a substantial number of these new coal plants will come online in the next two to three years, further solidifying coal’s role in the power sector. This raises concerns about the displacement of solar and wind energy. In the final quarter of 2024, electricity generation from fossil fuels remained high, while the utilization of solar and wind power dropped sharply. This trend underscores the challenges of integrating renewable energy into a power system that is still heavily reliant on coal.

The Contradictions in China’s Energy Policy

Despite its ambitious climate goals, China’s energy policy continues to send mixed signals. The country has made significant strides in expanding its renewable energy capacity, with solar and wind power growing at a rate that far exceeds that of the United States and Europe. However, the simultaneous approval and construction of new coal-fired plants suggest a contradictory approach to energy development.

Qi Qin, a China analyst for the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, has called on the government to halt the construction of already-approved coal power plants. doing so, she argues, would prevent further overcapacity, reduce emissions, and align China’s energy strategy with its climate commitments. The report also notes that while the number of new coal plant proposals in China declined in 2024 to 68.9 GW, down from over 100 GW in the previous two years, the country still accounted for 93% of all coal plant construction starts globally last year.

The Global Context and China’s Role in Climate Action

China’s energy choices have far-reaching implications for global climate efforts. The country’s continued investment in coal-fired power plants raises questions about its commitment to the Paris Agreement and its ability to lead the world in the transition to a low-carbon economy. The report emphasizes that China’s actions will determine whether global efforts to limit warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels can succeed.

China’s recent actions are all the more concerning in light of its failure to meet a UN deadline to submit a national plan to cut emissions by 2035. While Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun assured that the government is working on the plan and will submit it “in due course this year,” the delay has raised doubts about China’s readiness to take decisive action on climate change.

The Path Forward: Balancing Growth and Sustainability

The report’s findings suggest that China is at a critical juncture in its energy and climate policy. While the country has made remarkable progress in expanding its renewable energy capacity, its continued reliance on coal poses a significant threat to its climate goals. To address this challenge, China must take a more consistent and decisive approach to transitioning away from fossil fuels.

The report calls on the Chinese government to refrain from approving additional coal-fired power plants and to prioritize the development of renewable energy sources. By doing so, China can reduce its carbon emissions, avoid overcapacity in the power sector, and align its energy strategy with its climate commitments. The world will be watching closely to see whether China can reconcile its economic growth with its environmental responsibilities and lead the way in the global transition to a sustainable future.